Our resident betting expert and top tipster Jones Knows offers up his insight on every opening weekend Sky Bet Championship match and shares his best bets.
Blackburn vs Derby, Friday 8pm, live on Sky Sports Football
Derby to be relegated at 5/1 with Sky Bet has been the subject of market support during the build-up to the new Sky Bet Championship season – and I want to be a part of it.
Of course, making an investment in this type of market comes with the risk of points penalties due to off-the-field irregularities rearing their ugly head as five of the last 15 teams to finish in the bottom three have suffered points deductions. However, I do believe Derby have been overrated by the market and could be in for a season of slog and struggle.
It’s not often you see a promoted team priced up as the eighth most likely to be relegated in the make-up of this market and there is certainly a case of the name, stature and history of the club playing a huge part in the probabilities offered up by those in charge of creating these prices.
Derby got the job done last season playing sensible and heavily defence-first football under Paul Warne – they’ll need to expand and add different facets to compete up a level under a boss who has struggled to take the step up.
Warne has just a 20 per cent win rate as a manager in the Championship compared to 54 per cent in League One.
It’d be a nice start for those backing them for the drop if they started with a defeat – something which Blackburn are 5/4 with Sky Bet to impart on Friday. Since John Eustace took job, there have been just 2.06 goals in their games with Rovers scoring twice or more in just three of their 17 matches. Goals should be at a premium.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-0 | JONES KNOWS’ ANTE POST BEST BET: Derby to be relegated (5/1 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
Preston vs Sheffield United, Friday 8pm, live on Sky Sports+
Backing teams relegated from the Premier League in their first match back in the Championship has been a profitable betting strategy in that seven of the last 12 have won with just two defeats suffered.
Clubs are finding it easier to bounce back as Leicester and Southampton showed last year. Of course, Sheffield United aren’t exactly in the same bracket due to a complete rebuild to an already undercooked squad in terms of quality but their recruitment is looking sensible, signing good players for this level with know-how of the rigours of the Championship.
Kiefer Moore, for example, should hit the ground running. Plus, a player of Gustavo Hamer’s quality could take the league by storm.
Preston, if you exclude their first eight games of last season where they picked up 20 points, were putting up relegation numbers for the majority under Ryan Lowe, who has never really endeared himself to the locals. There was more than a hint of overperformance too based on their underlying numbers where Opta’s expected points model after the first eight games actually had them finishing 21st.
At 13/10 with Sky Bet, the Blades are a tempting proposition for the away win.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2
Cardiff vs Sunderland, Saturday 12.30pm, live on Sky Sports+
According to Opta’s expected points model when assessing the final 40 games of last season, Cardiff amassed 18 more points than their performance data merited.
That’s an eye-catching overperformance which implies a 23rd finish should have been expected yet they somehow manage to finish safe and secure in 11th position. Much of that was due to their prowess from set pieces, where they managed to score a league-high 21 goals – yet again that was a huge overperformance on their expected set piece threat which totalled 13.57 goals. I’m always wary of teams who overperform their performance metrics so I’ll be cold on Cardiff until they show me otherwise.
Sunderland finished 16th last year and have gone a bit rogue with the appointment of Régis Le Bris as head coach. This is a very tough division to implement a developmental-styled strategy involving so many youngsters.
They are another team impossible to weigh up until we’ve seen Le Bris’ methods in action. Draw please.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1
Hull vs Bristol City, Saturday 12.30pm, live on Sky Sports+
“We need more players, and next week the season will start. And if we get those players, we can have a good season. If not, then it’s a long season.”
New Hull boss Tim Walter there, already putting pressure on the hierarchy, who have high hopes for this season despite allowing the supremely talented Liam Rosenior to go in search of a more exciting brand of football.
Jacob Greaves, Jaden Philogene, Ozan Tufan, Liam Delap, Fabio Carvalho and Tyler Morton are also no longer on the books as Hull look massively undercooked for this opening encounter.
The market has them at 47 per cent to beat Bristol City, equating to 11/10 with Sky Bet – that’s something I’m keen to exploit. The Tigers can certainly be taken on with such a bland pre-season behind them along with the manager change.
Bristol City are one of a number of clubs who just may thrive having shown flashes of an exciting identity under Liam Manning towards the end of last season. It seems much more calm and stable within the City ranks, so this might be a great time to play Hull. They look overpriced to get a result.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-3 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Bristol City double chance (4/5 with Sky Bet: part of 11/2 weekend treble – Bet Here!)
Leeds vs Portsmouth, Saturday 12.30pm, live on Sky Sports+
Leeds look in a great place as the promotion favourites (11/4 to win the Championship with Sky Bet) set sail.
Daniel Farke walked into a club full of chaos but has established a calm authority. Just what is required in what can be a very emotional part of the world.
He’ll know sticking to the process will serve them well considering they amassed enough points last season to have won automatic promotion in the last 25 Championship seasons.
They’re going to go close – that’s for sure.
But I’ve no interest in backing them on the opening day in what could just be a very tricky fixture against excellent travellers Portsmouth on their arrival back in the Championship. History tells us automatic promotion winners from Sky Bet League One have a terrific record on the opening day, winning nine of the last 20 outings, losing just six.
I’m expecting Portsmouth’s style of play to suit the Championship – they like to press and counter, something which was on show last season on the road where they took 47 points – the most of any EFL team. In fact, since 2004-05 it’s just the 17th instance of a side in the EFL collecting at least 47 points away from home in a season.
If they can overcome first-day nerves, then this could turn into a shootout of a game. Pompey have scored at least once in 17 of their last 19 road trips and they can contribute here where the both teams to score price looks backable to me at 4/5 with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-2 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Both teams to score (4/5 with Sky Bet: part of 11/2 weekend treble – Bet Here!)
Middlesbrough vs Swansea, Saturday 12.30pm, live on Sky Sports+
Emmanuel Latte Lath showed himself to be a devastating finisher at the end of last season, bagging 11 goals in his last 12 games. And there is hope that playing as the main man in an attack-minded Michael Carrick side, he could take the league by storm. That’s why I’ve taken the 12/1 with Sky Bet for him to be the Championship top scorer.
Of all the Championship players to score a minimum of 10 goals last season, only Jamie Vardy and Josh Sargent had a better goals-per-minute ratio than Latte Lath at a goal every 131 minutes. His shot conversion rate of 21.92 per cent had him in the top seven of players to score a minimum of 10 goals last season, too, so there is an expectation that he’ll be able to build significantly on his 16 goals as Carrick’s men make a realistic push for promotion this time around.
Middlesbrough’s Emmanuel Latte Lath is 12/1 to be top scorer
Meanwhile, Luke Williams is one of a crop of exciting managers in the Championship at Swansea who showed a huge amount of promise in the second half of last season. You can put Marti Ciufientes at QPR and Danny Rohl at Sheffield Wednesday into that bracket, too. However, this looks like a very tricky start for them and hopefully Latte Lath can put them to the sword with a hat-trick. Too much to ask?
SCORE PREDICTION: 3-1 | JONES KNOWS’ ANTE POST BEST BET: Emmanuel Latte Lath to be Championship top scorer (12/1 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
Millwall vs Watford, Saturday 12.30pm, live on Sky Sports+
Watford could be on a slippery slope.
Since relegation they have missed the opportunity and advantage of the parachute payments by finishing in 11th in 22/23 and 15th in 23/24. Now they find themselves with an unbalanced squad lacking quality and led by a rookie manager in Tom Cleverley, who looks thrown in the deep end. This looks like a season where Watford will require someone with a cool head full of experience to navigate through what could be murky waters. Cleverley surely isn’t that man.
Even if Cleverley is inevitably fired, there is such a lack of faith in the Watford hierarchy to get any subsequent appointment right it has to make them vulnerable to relegation this season. They are 7/2 with Sky Bet for the drop and I wouldn’t put anyone off getting involved at those odds.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-0
Oxford vs Norwich, Saturday 12.30pm, live on Sky Sports Football
Oxford have an advantage over many of their relegation rivals in that staying up will been seen as a successful season.
That isn’t the case for the likes of Cardiff, Preston, Blackburn, Derby and Watford. This will allow the club to stay united through tricky spells of the season. And if they post the performance levels they showed over the last two months in League One where they roared to play-off success, then they’ll have a fine chance of staying up under Des Buckingham. They are 11/8 with Sky Bet to be relegated. That’s a little disrespectful to them.
However, across the previous 10 seasons, the combined record of League One play-off winners in their opening Championship game is pretty horrendous. Charlton in 2019/20 are the only side to win their opener, winning 2-1 away to Blackburn.
With Norwich entering a new era under new boss Johannes Hoff Thorup, playing the draw at 12/5 with Sky Bet is the smart move for those looking for an angle in.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1
QPR vs West Brom, Saturday 12.30pm, live on Sky Sports+
Martí Cifuentes has built a QPR team that is hard to score against. According to expected-goals data, they have had the second-best defence in the Championship since he was appointed, conceding 27.9 worth of expected goals. It’s a remarkable turnaround from the dismal days under Gareth Ainsworth. The balance in attack isn’t quite there yet though and that looks likely to hold them back from really competing towards the top-six.
It’s really hard to ignore the prospect of this one going down a low-scoring avenue.
West Brom are one of many teams in a state of flux in terms of recruitment having lost some key figures in Cedric Kipre, Okay Yokuslu, Brandon Thomas-Asante and Conor Townsend.
Carlos Coberan does remain – arguably the best pound-for-pound operator in the division – but away from home West Brom struggled last season, winning just two of their last 13 away games and 14 teams picked up more points away from home last season than the Baggies despite a top-six finish.
Both teams to score ‘no’ at 10/11 with Sky Bet looks one of the best bets of the opening weekend.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-0 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Both teams to score ‘no’ (10/11 with Sky Bet: part of 11/2 weekend treble – Bet Here!)
Stoke vs Coventry, Saturday 12.30pm, live on Sky Sports+
Enthusiasm levels must be pretty low within the Stoke fanbase. Look at their last six years worth of finishes in the Championship: 16th, 15th, 14th, 14th, 16th and 17th. There doesn’t look to be any obvious evidence of anything changing this season either so more mid-table obscurity can be expected.
Meanwhile, Coventry do have hope of promotion – they are one of two or three teams that could just make a mockery of their ante-post promotion prices. The 4/1 with Sky Bet being dangled for promotion on a club moving in the right direction season-on-season under the longest-serving manager in the Championship in Mark Robins could look very big come May.
The continuity factor could prove decisive in a season where there are many unknowns and risks attached to teams.
They will be popular at 2/1 with Sky Bet for an opening day away win.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2
Sheffield Wednesday vs Plymouth, Sunday 4pm, live on Sky Sports Football
The plan at Plymouth must be that Wayne Rooney will provide the difference from the dugout as there have been no major signings on the field over the summer. Shame they have Wayne Rooney the manager, not Wayne Rooney the player then.
He’ll need to make Plymouth more than the sum of their parts to consistently get results but the evidence is stacking up that he is set for struggles at this level without his former assistant Liam Rosenior by his side. Rooney has a 20.5 per cent win ratio without Rosenior compared to 30 win rate with him. Was Rosenior the brains of the operation at Derby? He certainly went on to prove that at Hull last season.
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Wayne Rooney spoke about his record at Birmingham in his first press conference with Plymouth
Plymouth only survived by the skin of their teeth last season on the final day, taking just 11 points and scoring just six goals in their last 12 games. Those poor returns were backed up by some woeful expected goals numbers of just 0.81 per 90 over that sample size. It could be a long season and the 9/4 with Sky Bet for relegation is a live runner.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-0
Luton vs Burnley, Monday 8pm, live on Sky Sports Football
Leeds and Burnley are taking up 55 per cent of the automatic promotion market with Burnley available at just 7/4 with Sky Bet to finish in the top two. I’d be steering well clear.
Scott Parker has a bloated squad to manage and the jury remains out whether he’s up to the task of succeeding with such expectation on his shoulders. Like Rooney, he’s lost an outstanding right-hand man in Matt Wells, who is now working with Ange Postecoglou at Tottenham. He could be what Mick Beale was to Steven Gerrard.
I’d be very lukewarm on Parker’s in-game management up against some of the brightest and most innovative coaches who are currently working in the Championship.
That said, of the 15 clubs relegated between 2018/19 and 2022/23 from the Premier League, seven have come straight back up (a 47 per cent strike rate) – this is indicating a bigger gap in quality between the Premier League and the Championship, so the sheer depth of player quality Parker has at his disposal might just be enough – like it was when winning promotion with Fulham and Bournemouth.
At this stage, I’d be more confident in backing Luton, with their top-class front two of Carlton Morris and Elijah Adebayo still at the club, to start the season in good nick and land the odds.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1
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Sky Sports’ Simeon Gholam picks his Championship legendary XI of the past 20 years, ahead of the 2024/25 season
How many of my EFL team’s matches will be live on Sky?
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With over 1,000 EFL games live on Sky Sports next season – here’s everything you need to know…
Every League One and League Two team will be featured live on Sky at least 20 times next season.
And every one of the 24 Championship clubs will be live on Sky at least 24 times.
What is Sky Sports+?
Launching in August, Sky Sports+ will be integrated into Sky TV, streaming service NOW and the Sky Sports app – giving Sky Sports customers access to over 50 per cent more live sport this year at no extra cost.
With the capability to show up to 100 live events via concurrent streams, Sky Sports+ makes it easier for fans to find and watch their team.
