We’re all set for another enthralling weekend of Premier League action and tipster Jones Knows is back with his array of insights, analysis and betting angles.
Chelsea vs Fulham, Friday 8pm, live on Sky Sports
Such is the influx of new signings and players returning from injury, what’s gone before for Chelsea this season is best ignored. This is a new beginning. Some may rate Fulham as a frisky outsider here at 5/1 with Sky Bet when assessing the bare facts: Marco Silva’s side are higher in the table, have scored more goals and beat Chelsea 2-1 just a few weeks back.
However, there is a strong chance Chelsea are about to spark into life.
Mykhailo Mudryk dazzled from the bench at Anfield while key wing-backs Reece James and Ben Chilwell are back in full training. I’ll be watching closely with future betting opportunities on my mind. But for the here and now, with plenty of unknowns about this Chelsea side, the one constant for a betting angle looks to be Graham Potter’s belief in Kai Havertz being his man to lead the line.
Kai Havertz celebrates after giving Chelsea an early lead against Bournemouth
The German has started 12 of Potter’s 13 games in charge and it’s telling that the club didn’t feel the need to strengthen that area in January. With an upsurge in creativity around him, Havertz’s goal ratio may spike over the next few months, starting here.
Fulham are vulnerable through the centre of their defence and Havertz somehow failed to score from a 0.40 worth of an expected goals tally in the 2-1 defeat at Craven Cottage. Chances will fall his way again. He also scored both goals in Chelsea’s last win over Fulham at Stamford Bridge in 2021. The 5/1 on him scoring first and 11/1 to score twice are punts to keep in mind.
SCORE PREDICTION: 3-1
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Everton vs Arsenal, Saturday 12.30pm
Sean Dyche’s style of football – if he sticks to his Burnley principles – should suit Everton in their current predicament.
This more direct approach of getting the ball into dangerous positions quicker does tend to get the crowd involved and when Goodison Park is on song, it’s a tough place for the opposition to play. That could happen if Everton start well but Arsenal are a machine that don’t tend to malfunction due to outside noise, so it’s hard to see Dyche ending their unbeaten 13-game Premier League run.
There could be a chance to get ahead of the market if we can latch onto a potentially profitable trend involving Everton’s offside numbers. From the start of the 2018/19 season to his final day in the job in April 2022, Dyche’s Burnley were caught offside more times than any other Premier League team. That total of 350 was 65 more than any other club as their direct style into the forward line does increase the possibilities of players straying.
Mikel Arteta employs a very high and aggressive offside line which has averaged 3.2 offsides against per match in their last 20 fixtures in all competitions. This all adds up to the evens with Sky Bet for Everton to be caught offside three or more times looking like a play to consider with one eye on future matches and markets to see if Dyche-ball is going to be an offside frenzy.
SCORE PREDICTION: 0-2
Aston Villa vs Leicester, Saturday 3pm
Unai Emery is spoiling Steven Gerrard’s reputation as a manager week by week. Villa have now taken 16 points from a possible 21 under Emery’s watch – only Arsenal (19) have picked up more in that time. In the first 13 games this season under Gerrard, Villa won just 12 points.
There is now a clear philosophy and method to the way Villa are structured with and without the ball – they are difficult to create big chances against and play with great intensity when tasked with breaking forward. That balance stems from the midfield duo of Douglas Luiz and Boubacar Kamara, who can do it all – from stellar defensive work to bursting through midfield to start counter attacks. With that in mind, Villa should be able to win the midfield battle and set the tone for a home win.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-0
Brentford vs Southampton, Saturday 3pm
It’s hard to foresee Southampton carrying enough attacking threat to seriously test this solid Brentford backline.
Since winning promotion, the Bees have conceded just 31 goals at home in 29 games – that’s a home defensive record only bettered by Chelsea, Arsenal, Manchester United, Liverpool and Manchester City. Confidence will be high too having lost just once in their last 11 Premier League games.
Brentford may not concede goals but they do ship a healthy amount of shots on their goal which always makes opposition players a potential angle for their shots lines. In total, Brentford are conceding 15.2 shots on their goal per game this season – the third-highest average in the Premier League. Che Adams is likely to lead the line for Southampton and his price of 4/5 with Sky Bet for two or more shots is a bet. Since the restart, every opposition striker against Brentford has covered that line with Rodrigo, Kiefer Moore, Darwin Nunez, Gianluca Scamaaca and Harry Kane averaging three shots per match against the Bees. Adams’ average this season is 1.8 shots per match and he is fresh from a goal in midweek against Newcastle.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-0 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Che Adams to have two or more shots (4/5 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
Brighton vs Bournemouth, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
The markets still haven’t woken up to the goals factor in Roberto De Zerbi’s games in charge of Brighton. In their last 13 games there have been 52 goals scored, working at an average of four per game. In 11 of those matches, backers of both teams scoring and over 2.5 goals would have copped a return to a healthy profit margin with the price usually trading around the even-money mark. Well, that simple yet effective strategy is there for the taking again in this one with 11/8 with Sky Bet available on both teams scoring and the game producing over 2.5 goals.
Roberto De Zerbi embraces match-winner Kaoru Mitoma at full-time
Bournemouth are the reason for that price being bulky as they’ve only scored once in their last five games since the restart. Yet, there were positive signs in forward areas in the 1-1 draw with Nottingham Forest with new signing Dango Ouattara providing a fantastic source of width and imagination.
Bournemouth created an expected goals figure of 1.42 from their 16 shots, showcasing quick transitions to work the ball into space – and that’s how you create big moments against this Brighton side who do leave themselves exposed when their midfield is bypassed. The Cherries can play their part in another goal frenzy at The Amex.
SCORE PREDICTION: 3-1 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Both teams to score & over 2.5 goals (11/8 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
Manchester United vs Crystal Palace, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Crystal Palace have recorded the lowest expected goals for figure per 90 since the restart of just 0.72, scoring just three goals, albeit that comes with the caveat of a run of games against Tottenham, Manchester United and Newcastle. A win over Bournemouth and Michael Olise’s last-minute wonder goal in the 1-1 draw with United have kept the focus off Patrick Vieira for the time being but it’s hard to make a case for them at Old Trafford.
Erik ten Hag’s side are unbeaten in 14 games at Old Trafford in all competitions, winning the last 12 and have improved further for the signing of Wout Weghorst, who is allowing the three players playing off him to shine. Marcus Rashford and Bruno Fernandes have both scored twice with Weghorst occupying defenders and it looks time for Antony to join that party. He has been getting into some great positions, especially in the Carabao Cup semi-final first leg win over Nottingham Forest. Taking the 8/1 with Sky Bet for him to score from outside the area seems a smart way to boost his anytime price as he’s averaged 1.79 shots from outside the box this season.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-0
Wolves vs Liverpool, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
I’m yet to see any evidence that Liverpool are about to turn a corner. Yes, the defence is being left exposed by an ageing midfield but what about the forward line? It’s just two goals from their past four games, and just seven shots on target.
The timing of Cody Gakpo’s move to Liverpool hasn’t helped him settle. Adapting to Jurgen Klopp’s unique style of football takes time but he’s been thrust into leading the line for a team going through a crisis of confidence, and it shows in his performances where he looks desperate to impress but is bordering on ‘headless chicken’ mode such is his eagerness. That can be seen through his fouls committed data in the last two fixtures: he made two vs Chelsea and four at Brighton in the FA Cup. The timing and positioning of his pressing isn’t quite there yet but his desire is, so he’s worth considering at the advertised odds to make two or more fouls at 5/2 with Sky Bet in this one whilst he’s still getting to grips with life at Anfield.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1
Newcastle vs West Ham, Saturday 5.30pm, live on Sky Sports
Newcastle aren’t usually a team to bet against as Eddie Howe has built a magnificently resolute and together group that have quality in key areas of the pitch. Even if the performance level drops, positive results can still be attained. Yet, there is enough of an argument here to take on the Toon at 8/13 for the win with Sky Bet, and invest in West Ham to avoid defeat at 5/4.
Bruno Guimaraes’ suspension is a key reason – Howe himself said losing the Brazilian was “huge” and looked devastated when talking about losing the midfielder for three games after the midweek win over Southampton that took Newcastle to Wembley. Not many teams can win the midfield battle at St James’ Park but with Declan Rice and Lucas Paqueta in there, West Ham stand a fair chance.
Bruno Guimaraes leaves the pitch after being sent off vs Southampton
Also, the possibility of the “bounce factor” is at play here – it’s usually a term used in horse racing when a horse puts in a massive performance then for unexplained reasons can’t hit those heights next time out. If you look at the last 13 occasions when a non-big six side have made a cup final, only two of those teams managed to win their next league match (W2, D4, L7) and the team in question only scored 12 goals in those 13 encounters.
It was a hugely emotional night on Tuesday and no matter how much Howe tried to underplay the occasion, players and fans will still be coming down from cloud nine. This could be a great time for David Moyes and West Ham, who have put back-to-back wins together of late, to head there.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2
Nottingham Forest vs Leeds, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
I had to do a double take when reading that Leeds have taken the fewest points of any Premier League team away from home this season. The win at Liverpool and draws at Southampton and Newcastle are all they’ve mustered. It’s a run of results that is a tad misleading as when assessing the performance data they deserved more from defeats at Aston Villa, Crystal Palace, Leicester and Tottenham. In those four matches they created 6.97 worth of expected goals and conceded just 5.92, theoretically winning that aggregate expected goals battle yet they came away with zero points. Harsh.
This is a Leeds team that are giving off all the signals that they should rate higher than mere relegation fodder – but it is taking a bit of patience to keep faith with them. Forest, much improved but still limited in the final third and without two key players in Dean Henderson and Morgan Gibbs-White, might just be the opponents against whom it all clicks for Jesse Marsch. Since their return to Premier League in 2020, Leeds have won all five away games against promoted sides by a 14-3 aggregate. The price is tight enough at 8/5 with Sky Bet for an away win so getting a bit braver and banking on Leeds to win by two or more goals at 5/1 is worth a small interest.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-3
Tottenham vs Manchester City, Sunday 4.30pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
I’m swimming against the market with this one as in I’m opposing Manchester City and backing a low scoring affair.
Only one of City’s last 15 away games against ‘big six’ opposition, barring Liverpool, have produced four or more goals and all five of their last meetings at Tottenham in all competitions have seen under 2.5 goals backers collect.
City’s attack isn’t exactly purring right now either, especially away from home. Erling Haaland has only scored in one of his last six away appearances in all competitions whilst overall City have only found the net six times in their last eight away games, only scoring two or more in just one of those matches – away at Leeds on Boxing Day.
Tottenham, with a full-strength squad, have shown glimpses since the restart of the form that took them to a top-four finish in the second half of last season under Antonio Conte. Such was the quality and ruthlessness of those performances it led to Spurs being third favourites for the title this season at just 9/1 with Sky Bet. If this team are starting to peak back towards those levels of performances, then they can avoid defeat against a far-from-flowing City. And remember, Tottenham have won all four meetings with City at the new Tottenham Hotspur Stadium without conceding.
